Will ADC Juan Pablo II College win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $373 held · ends Oct 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$372.76

Combined PnL

-$22.49

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 72.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$315.58

Total Shares434

Combined PnL-$32.41

Yes3 traders

Total Value$57.18

Total Shares296

Combined PnL+$9.92

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 82.5¢	$264.34	$232.36	-$31.99	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$57.36	$56.94	-$0.42	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$45.56	$50.92	+$9.38	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73¢	$26.28	$26.28	+$0	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$3.37	$3.46	+$0.09	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$2.35	$2.8	+$0.45	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$264.34

Value

$232.36

PnL

-$31.99

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$57.36

Value

$56.94

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.56

Value

$50.92

PnL

+$9.38

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$26.28

Value

$26.28

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.37

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.