ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. CS Huancayo: O/U 2.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
$18.49
51.6¢ → 50.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $359.27 | $351.73 | -$7.55 | 50% 24100-23732 (47832) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.2¢ | $216.27 | $204.6 | -$11.67 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $143 | $147.13 | +$4.13 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51.8¢ | $281.98 | $291.4 | +$9.42 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 48.4¢ | $219.09 | $223.94 | +$4.85 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 50.4¢ | $181.11 | $178.22 | -$2.89 | 58% 27866-20500 (48366) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.4¢ | $111.45 | $118.24 | +$6.79 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $69.66 | $59.99 | -$9.67 | |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $75.45 | $79.15 | +$3.7 | 60% 9071-5988 (15059) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $14.4 | $15.3 | +$0.9 | 50% 11935-12084 (24019) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $3.27 | $2.88 | -$0.39 | 49% 18383-18810 (37193) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $1.38 | $1.4 | +$0.02 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
Invested
$359.27
Value
$351.73
PnL
-$7.55
Record
50%
24100-23732 (47832)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$281.98
Value
$291.4
PnL
+$9.42
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
Invested
$219.09
Value
$223.94
PnL
+$4.85
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
Invested
$181.11
Value
$178.22
PnL
-$2.89
Record
58%
27866-20500 (48366)
Both legs:
poshposh<$100Invested
$75.45
Value
$79.15
PnL
+$3.7
Record
60%
9071-5988 (15059)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$15.3
PnL
+$0.9
Record
50%
11935-12084 (24019)
Invested
$3.27
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$0.39
Record
49%
18383-18810 (37193)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.