AD Tarma vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$1.6K
-$105.86
76.3¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 76.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$1.02 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 38¢ | $160.46 | $97.12 | -$63.34 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Underavg 80.6¢ | $91.84 | $88.92 | -$2.92 | 47% 4449-4923 (9372) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 15.3¢ | $114.24 | $75.85 | -$38.39 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $0.81 | $0.62 | -$0.19 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
Invested
$1,363.47
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$1.02
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$160.46
Value
$97.12
PnL
-$63.34
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$91.84
Value
$88.92
PnL
-$2.92
Record
47%
4449-4923 (9372)
RN1CTRInvested
$114.24
Value
$75.85
PnL
-$38.39
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.81
Value
$0.62
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.