Spread: AD Tarma (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CD Moquegua (80%) · CD Moquegua at 57¢ · $432 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
CD Moquegua
5
CD Moquegua 80%
$431.56
-$34.46
62¢ → 57¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCD Moquegua at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | CD Moqueguaavg 62.6¢ | $386.08 | $343.59 | -$33.79 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | CD Moqueguaavg 57¢ | $40.47 | $40.47 | +$0 | 59% 44601-31003 (75604) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | CD Moqueguaavg 62¢ | $33.32 | $33.32 | -$1.34 | 51% 193-189 (382) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | CD Moqueguaavg 61.7¢ | $9.25 | $9.3 | +$0.05 | 47% 2038-2342 (4380) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | AD Tarmaavg 34¢ | $4.26 | $4.88 | +$0.63 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$386.08
Value
$343.59
PnL
-$33.79
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$40.47
Value
$40.47
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
44601-31003 (75604)
Invested
$33.32
Value
$33.32
PnL
-$1.34
Record
51%
193-189 (382)
Invested
$9.25
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
2038-2342 (4380)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.63
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.