Will AD Tarma vs. CD Moquegua end in a draw?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $823 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$823.23
$115.89
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 76.2¢ | $681.07 | $816.88 | +$135.81 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $4.89 | $4.49 | -$0.41 | 55% 1688-1389 (3077) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $20.9 | $1.38 | -$19.52 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $0.48 | $0.48 | +$0 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
Invested
$681.07
Value
$816.88
PnL
+$135.81
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.49
PnL
-$0.41
Record
55%
1688-1389 (3077)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$20.9
Value
$1.38
PnL
-$19.52
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.48
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.