Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-10-28?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

$34.6

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares11,904

Combined PnL+$571.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.23

Total Shares4,060

Combined PnL-$536.54

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 94.5¢	$10.6K	$11.2K	+$564.89	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.4¢	$660.65	$667.5	+$6.86	50% 32772-32330 (65102)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$565.77	$29.67	-$532.13	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 85¢	$6.8	$6.2	-$0.6	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$3.71	$0.86	-$2.85	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$2.27	$0.7	-$1.57	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$10,592.44

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$564.89

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

SnakeBall

Invested

$660.65

Value

$667.5

PnL

+$6.86

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$565.77

Value

$29.67

PnL

-$532.13

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$0.6

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.71

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$2.85

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$1.57

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.