Will AD Tarma win on 2026-10-28?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 100¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$23.8K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares26,353

Combined PnL+$193.51

No7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares13,655

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nooserac	Yesavg 66¢	$9.9K	$14.0K	+$150.08	52% 5716-5281 (10997)
3E 3edmond.dantes	Yesavg 65.9¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	+$7.57	63% 22-13 (35)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Yesavg 61¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$74.11	55% 1688-1389 (3077)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 22.2¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$905.68	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
us391CTR	Noavg 37.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$68.54	51% 1646-1580 (3226)
ZaiZoiBele	Yesavg 80.6¢	$210.61	$169.89	-$40.72	80% 4969-1228 (6197)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 33.6¢	$188.4	$51.06	-$137.34	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 38¢	$1.9K	$19.83	$-1.3K	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
bernardi22	Yesavg 88.8¢	$219.55	$19.75	+$2.47	56% 1231-954 (2185)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$15.45	$13.63	-$1.83	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 26.6¢	$24.17	$9.1	-$15.07	50% 12109-12317 (24426)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$5.84	$2.74	-$3.11	52% 5875-5510 (11385)

Nooserac

Yes

Invested

$9,899.97

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$150.08

Record

52%

5716-5281 (10997)

3edmond.dantes

Yes

Invested

$6,076.94

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$7.57

Record

63%

22-13 (35)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Yes

Invested

$1,130.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$74.11

Record

55%

1688-1389 (3077)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,088.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$905.68

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

us391CTR

Invested

$1,202.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$68.54

Record

51%

1646-1580 (3226)

ZaiZoiBele

Yes

Invested

$210.61

Value

$169.89

PnL

-$40.72

Record

80%

4969-1228 (6197)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$188.4

Value

$51.06

PnL

-$137.34

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,923.97

Value

$19.83

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

bernardi22

Yes

Invested

$219.55

Value

$19.75

PnL

+$2.47

Record

56%

1231-954 (2185)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$15.45

Value

$13.63

PnL

-$1.83

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$24.17

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$15.07

Record

50%

12109-12317 (24426)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$3.11

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.