Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.7K
-$169.21
94¢ → 93.8¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 94.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$128.35 | 57% 15028-11433 (26461) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 93.5¢ | $935.4 | $855 | -$80.4 | — 7-11 (18) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 94.5¢ | $329.54 | $328.11 | -$0.48 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $440.7 | $99.5 | +$39.49 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $25.13 | $25.65 | +$0.53 | 18% 3644-16107 (19751) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,524.61
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$128.35
Record
57%
15028-11433 (26461)
Invested
$935.4
Value
$855
PnL
-$80.4
Record
—
7-11 (18)
IstarothInvested
$329.54
Value
$328.11
PnL
-$0.48
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
Invested
$440.7
Value
$99.5
PnL
+$39.49
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
2B9S<$100Invested
$25.13
Value
$25.65
PnL
+$0.53
Record
18%
3644-16107 (19751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.