Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $64 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$63.75

Combined PnL

-$174.73

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 0.1¢

-92% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$49.93

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$1.13

Yes9 traders

Total Value$13.82

Total Shares9,216

Combined PnL-$175.86

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$48.8	$49.93	+$1.13	77% 9134-2750 (11884)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$116.15	$8.95	-$107.2	50% 1220-1233 (2453)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$8	$1.8	-$6.2	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$13.37	$0.98	-$12.39	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$195.6	$0.83	-$35.65	38% 2935-4692 (7627)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.52	$0.45	-$4.07	72% 8554-3325 (11879)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.62	$0.34	-$4.28	25% 181-542 (723)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$3.73	$0.27	-$3.46	31% 1408-3193 (4601)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.2	$0.16	-$2.04	23% 178-602 (780)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.6	$0.04	-$0.56	24% 666-2084 (2750)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$48.8

Value

$49.93

PnL

+$1.13

Record

77%

9134-2750 (11884)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.15

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$107.2

Record

50%

1220-1233 (2453)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$6.2

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.37

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$12.39

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$195.6

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$35.65

Record

38%

2935-4692 (7627)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$4.07

Record

72%

8554-3325 (11879)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.62

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$4.28

Record

25%

181-542 (723)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.73

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$3.46

Record

31%

1408-3193 (4601)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$2.04

Record

23%

178-602 (780)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.56

Record

24%

666-2084 (2750)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.