Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Libertad Asuncion win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 44¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
4 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$2.08
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 78.3¢ | $2.0K | $1.7K | -$300.05 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 78.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | -$415.03 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36¢ | $551.88 | $666.86 | +$114.98 | |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 73.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$66.52 | 57% 1768-1328 (3096) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36.1¢ | $600.73 | $741.46 | +$140.73 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 73.3¢ | $852.8 | $645.55 | -$207.25 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 67.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$50.4 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 67.4¢ | $910.65 | $762.92 | -$147.73 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20.5¢ | $176.96 | $375.09 | +$198.13 | |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $59.08 | $73.98 | +$14.9 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20.7¢ | $18.28 | $38.4 | +$20.11 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 64.8¢ | $40.8 | $35.59 | -$5.21 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $28.05 | $22.1 | -$5.95 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $12.99 | $15.15 | +$2.16 | 59% 10341-7332 (17673) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $5.2 | $7.39 | +$2.19 | 50% 33606-33156 (66762) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $4.68 | $4.2 | -$0.49 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,042.67
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$300.05
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
Both legs:
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$1,453.53
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$66.52
Record
57%
1768-1328 (3096)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,087.61
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$50.4
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.08
Value
$73.98
PnL
+$14.9
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.05
Value
$22.1
PnL
-$5.95
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
poshposh<$100Invested
$12.99
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$2.16
Record
59%
10341-7332 (17673)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$7.39
PnL
+$2.19
Record
50%
33606-33156 (66762)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.68
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.