Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $40M?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 36¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.1K
-$190.99
40.4¢ → 36¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhuttonCTR | Noavg 39.5¢ | $2.4K | $1.7K | -$184.45 | 68% 319-150 (469) |
BB bbbetk | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $710.66 | $710.66 | +$0 | 50% 145-147 (292) |
BE BeyonddreamCTR | Noavg 42.3¢ | $525.38 | $570.82 | +$64.05 | 62% 196-121 (317) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 45.5¢ | $223.64 | $117.92 | -$68.85 | 42% 5197-7120 (12317) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 62.7¢ | $36.75 | $35 | -$1.75 | 25% 282-835 (1117) |
alanhuttonCTRInvested
$2,388.55
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$184.45
Record
68%
319-150 (469)
Invested
$710.66
Value
$710.66
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
145-147 (292)
Invested
$525.38
Value
$570.82
PnL
+$64.05
Record
62%
196-121 (317)
Invested
$223.64
Value
$117.92
PnL
-$68.85
Record
42%
5197-7120 (12317)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$35
PnL
-$1.75
Record
25%
282-835 (1117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.