Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $30M?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 68¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
2 arb excluded
$5.8K
$277.77
56.2¢ → 67.5¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186 | Yesavg 55.5¢ | $3.6K | $4.1K | +$451.11 | 55% 286-236 (522) |
 alanhuttonCTR | Noavg 36.9¢ | $1.5K | $731.99 | -$222.53 | 68% 319-150 (469) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $404 | $400 | -$4 | 26% 281-795 (1076) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65¢ | $260 | $278 | +$18 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36¢ | $144 | $122 | -$22 | |
BB bbbetk | Yesavg 63¢ | $331.43 | $365.63 | +$34.2 | 50% 145-147 (292) |
 StudyPrediction | Yesavg 62¢ | $123.99 | $138.99 | +$15 | 53% 4543-3958 (8501) |
LI lissartterARB<$100 | Noavg 32.8¢ | $107.56 | $55.89 | -$4.59 | 42% 5196-7120 (12316) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 32.8¢ | $37.84 | $35.21 | -$5.33 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 67¢ | $19.94 | $20.68 | +$0.74 |
Invested
$3,576.42
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$451.11
Record
55%
286-236 (522)
alanhuttonCTRInvested
$1,513.48
Value
$731.99
PnL
-$222.53
Record
68%
319-150 (469)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$404
Value
$400
PnL
-$4
Record
26%
281-795 (1076)
Both legs:
Invested
$331.43
Value
$365.63
PnL
+$34.2
Record
50%
145-147 (292)
StudyPredictionInvested
$123.99
Value
$138.99
PnL
+$15
Record
53%
4543-3958 (8501)
Invested
$107.56
Value
$55.89
PnL
-$4.59
Record
42%
5196-7120 (12316)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.