Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 9.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$1.2K
-$280.95
16.7¢ → 9.5¢
-43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhuttonCTR | Noavg 15.9¢ | $772.04 | $470.02 | -$152.02 | 68% 318-150 (468) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 89.8¢ | $247 | $243.81 | -$2.17 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
 clazzy1CTR | Noavg 18¢ | $351 | $224.25 | -$126.75 | 62% 371-225 (596) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Yesavg 86¢ | $197.79 | $197.79 | +$0 | 70% 399-175 (574) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $20.2 | $18.22 | -$0 | 42% 5180-7105 (12285) |
alanhuttonCTRInvested
$772.04
Value
$470.02
PnL
-$152.02
Record
68%
318-150 (468)
IstarothInvested
$247
Value
$243.81
PnL
-$2.17
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$351
Value
$224.25
PnL
-$126.75
Record
62%
371-225 (596)
Invested
$197.79
Value
$197.79
PnL
+$0
Record
70%
399-175 (574)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$18.22
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
5180-7105 (12285)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.