Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$76.34

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

5.6¢ → 0.3¢

-96% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$65.19

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$1.8

Yes6 traders

Total Value$11.15

Total Shares4,189

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

494h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV aviato<$100	Noavg 97¢	$65.35	$65.19	+$1.8	84% 2454-456 (2910)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$32.92	$6.29	-$26.63	42% 1898-2620 (4518)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$18.24	$2.81	-$15.43	56% 18365-14704 (33069)
CU CustomTraderCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$820.14	$0.67	-$251.54	15% 118-669 (787)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$2.7K	$0.57	-$849.59	25% 181-537 (718)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$55.25	$0.55	-$54.7	30% 2189-5039 (7228)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$25.46	$0.25	-$25.2	56% 3077-2425 (5502)

aviato<$100

Invested

$65.35

Value

$65.19

PnL

+$1.8

Record

84%

2454-456 (2910)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.92

Value

$6.29

PnL

-$26.63

Record

42%

1898-2620 (4518)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.24

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$15.43

Record

56%

18365-14704 (33069)

CustomTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$820.14

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$251.54

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,680.89

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$849.59

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.25

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$54.7

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.46

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$25.2

Record

56%

3077-2425 (5502)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

494h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.