Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $27 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$26.78

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

4.2¢ → 0.4¢

-92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$26.78

Total Shares7,459

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

488h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$45	$22.17	-$23.49	42% 1897-2620 (4517)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$2.6K	$1.79	$-1.1K	17% 1023-4939 (5962)
CU CustomTraderCTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$417.8	$0.94	-$65.41	15% 118-669 (787)
LP lpgbCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$2.1K	$0.8	-$565.23	25% 181-537 (718)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$55.25	$0.77	-$54.48	30% 2187-5031 (7218)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$21.4	$0.32	-$22.39	56% 3077-2423 (5500)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$22.17

PnL

-$23.49

Record

42%

1897-2620 (4517)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,598.19

Value

$1.79

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

17%

1023-4939 (5962)

CustomTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$417.8

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$65.41

Record

15%

118-669 (787)

lpgbCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,077.89

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$565.23

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.25

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$54.48

Record

30%

2187-5031 (7218)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.4

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$22.39

Record

56%

3077-2423 (5500)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

488h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.