Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in October 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 4.0¢ · $23 held · ends Dec 2
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$22.7
$9.27
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $1.5 | $7.5 | +$6 | 50% 4577-4487 (9064) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $7 | $5 | -$2 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $1.78 | $4.45 | +$2.67 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $1.5 | $2.5 | +$1 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $1.5 | $2.5 | +$1 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 1¢ | $0.15 | $0.75 | +$0.6 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$6
Record
50%
4577-4487 (9064)
Invested
$7
Value
$5
PnL
-$2
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$1.78
Value
$4.45
PnL
+$2.67
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0.6
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.