Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in October 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $332 held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$332
-$0.57
99.6¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $99.5 | $99.4 | -$0.1 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $88.66 | $88.47 | -$0.2 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $49.7 | -$0.1 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.8 | $49.7 | -$0.1 | 81% 35-8 (43) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.82 | -$0.03 | 20% 69-276 (345) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $14.96 | $14.91 | -$0.04 | 79% 286-77 (363) |
Invested
$99.5
Value
$99.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$88.66
Value
$88.47
PnL
-$0.2
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
81%
35-8 (43)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.03
Record
20%
69-276 (345)
Invested
$14.96
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
286-77 (363)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.