Will global temperature increase by between 1.45ºC and 1.49ºC in October 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $284 held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$284.38
-$1.29
96.8¢ → 96.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $99 | $96.4 | -$2.6 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $94 | $96.4 | +$2.4 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $49.5 | $48.2 | -$1.3 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $28.92 | +$0.72 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.97 | $14.46 | -$0.51 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$99
Value
$96.4
PnL
-$2.6
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$94
Value
$96.4
PnL
+$2.4
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$48.2
PnL
-$1.3
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$28.92
PnL
+$0.72
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Invested
$14.97
Value
$14.46
PnL
-$0.51
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.