Will global temperature increase by between 1.30ºC and 1.34ºC in October 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $330 held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$330.33
-$2.57
99.7¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $99.6 | $98.9 | -$0.7 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $88.74 | $88.02 | -$0.72 | 86% 32-5 (37) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.45 | -$0.4 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.85 | $49.45 | -$0.4 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.67 | -$0.21 | 28% 840-2134 (2974) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $14.97 | $14.83 | -$0.14 | 79% 231-63 (294) |
Invested
$99.6
Value
$98.9
PnL
-$0.7
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$88.74
Value
$88.02
PnL
-$0.72
Record
86%
32-5 (37)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.45
PnL
-$0.4
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$49.85
Value
$49.45
PnL
-$0.4
Record
85%
23-4 (27)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.67
PnL
-$0.21
Record
28%
840-2134 (2974)
Invested
$14.97
Value
$14.83
PnL
-$0.14
Record
79%
231-63 (294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.