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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
$70.65
90¢ → 95.8¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Late
705h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 88.8¢ | $338.3 | $353.78 | +$26.96 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $297.72 | $319.49 | +$21.78 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 ImJustKen | Noavg 90.1¢ | $180.19 | $190.79 | +$11.9 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 93.5¢ | $164.52 | $167.87 | +$4.57 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $57.45 | $62.89 | +$5.44 | 52% 2049-1868 (3917) |
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$338.3
Value
$353.78
PnL
+$26.96
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$297.72
Value
$319.49
PnL
+$21.78
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
ImJustKenInvested
$180.19
Value
$190.79
PnL
+$11.9
Record
53%
3036-2716 (5752)
Invested
$164.52
Value
$167.87
PnL
+$4.57
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$57.45
Value
$62.89
PnL
+$5.44
Record
52%
2049-1868 (3917)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.