Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $222 held · ends Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$222.4

Combined PnL

$35.28

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 99.6¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$221.37

Total Shares222

Combined PnL+$43.41

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$8.13

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 90.7¢	$152.29	$137.27	+$34.71	58% 15784-11478 (27262)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 86¢	$31.94	$36.98	+$5.03	58% 16798-12127 (28925)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$22.7	$23.73	+$1.04	17% 1307-6523 (7830)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$44.21	$23.39	+$2.63	26% 554-1607 (2161)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$5.84	$0.18	-$5.66	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$2.56	$0.09	-$2.47	19% 2850-12163 (15013)

graynotebook19

Invested

$152.29

Value

$137.27

PnL

+$34.71

Record

58%

15784-11478 (27262)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$31.94

Value

$36.98

PnL

+$5.03

Record

58%

16798-12127 (28925)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$22.7

Value

$23.73

PnL

+$1.04

Record

17%

1307-6523 (7830)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$44.21

Value

$23.39

PnL

+$2.63

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.84

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$5.66

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$2.47

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.