Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 66¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$113.38
-$0.23
99.9¢ → 66¢
-34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 66%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $41.96 | $41.87 | -$0.08 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.91 | -$0.06 | 27% 928-2514 (3442) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.89 | $18.85 | -$0.04 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $21.48 | $13.69 | -$7.79 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.68 | $6.71 | +$6.03 | 46% 329-379 (708) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.63 | $2.34 | +$1.71 | 51% 83-81 (164) |
Invested
$41.96
Value
$41.87
PnL
-$0.08
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.06
Record
27%
928-2514 (3442)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$18.85
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$21.48
Value
$13.69
PnL
-$7.79
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$6.71
PnL
+$6.03
Record
46%
329-379 (708)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$1.71
Record
51%
83-81 (164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.