Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (90%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 10¢ · $166 held · ends Nov 13

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$166.19

Combined PnL

$2.46

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$155.7

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$0.25

No4 traders

Total Value$10.49

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$2.71

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

163h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LornaPredicts<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$80.89	$80.44	-$0.45	12% 16-115 (131)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$54.86	$54.86	+$0	50% 22-22 (44)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$20.2	$20.4	+$0.2	4% 1-24 (25)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$2.94	$4.2	+$1.26	86% 36-6 (42)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$2.4	$3	+$0.6	16% 47-240 (287)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 7.2¢	$1.64	$2.29	+$0.65	53% 5455-4894 (10349)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.8	$1	+$0.2	29% 2568-6178 (8746)

LornaPredicts<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.89

Value

$80.44

PnL

-$0.45

Record

12%

16-115 (131)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.86

Value

$54.86

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

1-24 (25)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$2.94

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.26

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

16%

47-240 (287)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.64

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

5455-4894 (10349)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

29%

2568-6178 (8746)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

163h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.4%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$777.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

877.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.