Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$112.63
$0.19
99.9¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $41.96 | $41.96 | +$0 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 25% 96-283 (379) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $21.5 | $21.5 | +$0 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.89 | $18.89 | +$0 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.13 | $0.32 | +$0.19 | 49% 86-88 (174) |
Invested
$41.96
Value
$41.96
PnL
+$0
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
96-283 (379)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$18.89
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$0.19
Record
49%
86-88 (174)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.