Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$93.75
-$0.05
Research grade
AvoidNo at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $41.96 | $41.96 | +$0 | 84% 38-7 (45) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 14% 60-372 (432) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $21.5 | $21.46 | -$0.04 | 30% 2667-6201 (8868) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.29 | $0.32 | +$0.03 | 51% 83-81 (164) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.09 | $0.06 | -$0.04 | 48% 318-347 (665) |
Invested
$41.96
Value
$41.96
PnL
+$0
Record
84%
38-7 (45)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
14%
60-372 (432)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$21.46
PnL
-$0.04
Record
30%
2667-6201 (8868)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
83-81 (164)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
318-347 (665)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.