Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $93 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$92.51
-$2.8
Research grade
AvoidNo at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Late
148h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $39.27 | $37.93 | -$1.34 | 86% 36-6 (42) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $27.51 | $27.09 | -$0.42 | 16% 47-240 (287) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $17.7 | $17.07 | -$0.62 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 91.7¢ | $9.17 | $9.03 | -$0.14 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $1.66 | $1.39 | -$0.27 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
Invested
$39.27
Value
$37.93
PnL
-$1.34
Record
86%
36-6 (42)
Invested
$27.51
Value
$27.09
PnL
-$0.42
Record
16%
47-240 (287)
Invested
$17.7
Value
$17.07
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$9.17
Value
$9.03
PnL
-$0.14
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$0.27
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.