Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 52¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 13

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$75.58

Combined PnL

-$51.1

Smart Money Entry

85.2¢ → 52.3¢

-39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$40.7

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$28.87

No5 traders

Total Value$34.88

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$79.97

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

156h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$7.8	$30.97	+$23.18	50% 81-80 (161)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$19.68	$11.65	-$8.03	53% 29-26 (55)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$10.69	$11.23	+$0.54	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$1.66	$5.86	+$4.2	12% 18-130 (148)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$39.27	$5.54	-$33.73	84% 38-7 (45)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$27.51	$3.96	-$23.55	21% 63-241 (304)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.4¢	$2.38	$3.87	+$1.49	43% 337-448 (785)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$17.7	$2.5	-$15.2	53% 5602-5022 (10624)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.8

Value

$30.97

PnL

+$23.18

Record

50%

81-80 (161)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$19.68

Value

$11.65

PnL

-$8.03

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.54

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$4.2

Record

12%

18-130 (148)

korda77<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$33.73

Record

84%

38-7 (45)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$27.51

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$23.55

Record

21%

63-241 (304)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$1.49

Record

43%

337-448 (785)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$15.2

Record

53%

5602-5022 (10624)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

156h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.