Will Angel City FC win on 2026-11-01?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$5.0K
$16.81
55.1¢ → 56¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 55.2¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$38.84 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
 poshposhCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $389.32 | $372.39 | -$16.93 | 50% 2545-2532 (5077) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Noavg 46¢ | $353.74 | $338.36 | -$15.38 | 49% 1199-1227 (2426) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $137.99 | $148.39 | +$10.4 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.4¢ | $3.68 | $3.56 | -$0.12 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$2,767.7
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$38.84
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
poshposhCTRInvested
$1,320
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$389.32
Value
$372.39
PnL
-$16.93
Record
50%
2545-2532 (5077)
Invested
$353.74
Value
$338.36
PnL
-$15.38
Record
49%
1199-1227 (2426)
Invested
$137.99
Value
$148.39
PnL
+$10.4
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.68
Value
$3.56
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.