NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 adjusted gross margin 73% to 75%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 86¢ · $965 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$965.48
$174.1
68.1¢ → 86¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
477h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 74.1¢ | $545.16 | $621.12 | +$74.95 | 49% 555-582 (1137) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e | Yesavg 54¢ | $177.76 | $281.47 | +$106.99 | 78% 468-134 (602) |
 clazzy1<$100 | Yesavg 75.8¢ | $31.82 | $35.91 | +$4.83 | 65% 503-275 (778) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 72.5¢ | $12.67 | $14.94 | +$2.09 | 26% 7359-21128 (28487) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $12.19 | $6.67 | -$5.52 | 17% 396-1983 (2379) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $71.11 | $5.36 | -$9.24 | 17% 1360-6591 (7951) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$545.16
Value
$621.12
PnL
+$74.95
Record
49%
555-582 (1137)
Invested
$177.76
Value
$281.47
PnL
+$106.99
Record
78%
468-134 (602)
clazzy1<$100Invested
$31.82
Value
$35.91
PnL
+$4.83
Record
65%
503-275 (778)
Invested
$12.67
Value
$14.94
PnL
+$2.09
Record
26%
7359-21128 (28487)
Invested
$12.19
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$5.52
Record
17%
396-1983 (2379)
Invested
$71.11
Value
$5.36
PnL
-$9.24
Record
17%
1360-6591 (7951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.