Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yokohama BayStars, while the market favors Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Yokohama BayStars
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yokohama BayStars (100%) · Yokohama BayStars at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yokohama BayStars
4
Yokohama BayStars 100%
$1.6K
$515.83
33.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYokohama BayStars at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Yokohama BayStarsavg 33.1¢ | $726.37 | $1.1K | +$345.14 | 54% 16861-14141 (31002) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Yokohama BayStarsavg 34.5¢ | $258.98 | $375.17 | +$116.18 | 59% 3999-2836 (6835) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yokohama BayStarsavg 33.7¢ | $98.08 | $144.32 | +$47.24 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Yokohama BayStarsavg 34.7¢ | $16.46 | $23.73 | +$7.27 | 54% 2922-2509 (5431) |
Invested
$726.37
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$345.14
Record
54%
16861-14141 (31002)
Invested
$258.98
Value
$375.17
PnL
+$116.18
Record
59%
3999-2836 (6835)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$98.08
Value
$144.32
PnL
+$47.24
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$16.46
Value
$23.73
PnL
+$7.27
Record
54%
2922-2509 (5431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.