Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks vs. Yokohama BayStars
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks (33%) · Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks at 66¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
3
Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$45.29
Research grade
NeutralFukuoka SoftBank Hawks at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawksavg 70¢ | $908.69 | $863.27 | -$45.42 | 60% 851-566 (1417) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawksavg 68.9¢ | $356.26 | $494.83 | +$126.27 | 60% 9071-5988 (15059) |
| └ Yokohama BayStars leg | Yokohama BayStarsavg 13.8¢ | $113.56 | $262.43 | +$136.57 | |
| └ Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks leg | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawksavg 68.9¢ | $242.7 | $232.39 | -$10.31 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yokohama BayStarsavg 27.1¢ | $10.55 | $11.6 | -$0.35 | 54% 2548-2180 (4728) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yokohama BayStarsavg 32.1¢ | $5.58 | $0.51 | +$0.49 | 58% 40364-29157 (69521) |
Invested
$908.69
Value
$863.27
PnL
-$45.42
Record
60%
851-566 (1417)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$356.26
Value
$494.83
PnL
+$126.27
Record
60%
9071-5988 (15059)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.55
Value
$11.6
PnL
-$0.35
Record
54%
2548-2180 (4728)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.58
Value
$0.51
PnL
+$0.49
Record
58%
40364-29157 (69521)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.