Will Ranheim win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 61¢ · $18 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$18.26
-$1.91
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $5.7 | +$0.9 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 54% 6427-5413 (11840) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $7.1 | $3.9 | -$2.85 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 49.4¢ | $3.82 | $3.66 | -$0.16 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.