Spread: Odds BK (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sandnes Ulf (67%) · Sandnes Ulf at 60¢ · $597 held · ended Nov 1
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Neutral
Sandnes Ulf
3
Sandnes Ulf 67%
$597.09
-$0.94
60.2¢ → 60¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSandnes Ulf at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Sandnes Ulfavg 60¢ | $473.65 | $473.65 | -$0 | 55% 1779-1467 (3246) |
 VeryLucky888 | Sandnes Ulfavg 61¢ | $122 | $120 | -$1 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Odds BKavg 39.3¢ | $3.38 | $3.44 | +$0.06 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.