Will Odds BK win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$64.19
38.3¢ → 92¢
+140% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 62.9¢ | $457.43 | $452.43 | -$5 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.6¢ | $227.22 | $260.35 | +$33.14 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 62.9¢ | $230.21 | $192.08 | -$38.13 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 40¢ | $171.67 | $361.31 | -$5.92 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Noavg 37¢ | $251.68 | $326.51 | +$74.82 | 55% 1779-1467 (3246) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 39¢ | $81.12 | $108.16 | -$1.04 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 59.2¢ | $23.66 | $19.99 | -$3.67 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$457.43
Value
$452.43
PnL
-$5
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$171.67
Value
$361.31
PnL
-$5.92
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$251.68
Value
$326.51
PnL
+$74.82
Record
55%
1779-1467 (3246)
Invested
$81.12
Value
$108.16
PnL
-$1.04
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$23.66
Value
$19.99
PnL
-$3.67
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.