Back to Markets
YesYesNoYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Kjelsaas vs. Bjarg end in a draw?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$5.58
Combined PnL
-$10.02
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$12.42
No2 traders
Total Value$5.58
Total Shares6
Combined PnL+$2.4
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $6.53 | — | -$6.53 | 37% 972-1637 (2609) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $3.76 | — | -$3.76 | 36% 937-1647 (2584) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $3.18 | $5.58 | +$2.4 | 53% 2094-1845 (3939) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $2.13 | — | -$2.13 | 36% 443-803 (1246) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $101 | — | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100Invested
$6.53
Value
—
PnL
-$6.53
Record
37%
972-1637 (2609)
LI
LimousinCTR<$100Invested
$3.76
Value
—
PnL
-$3.76
Record
36%
937-1647 (2584)
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
$5.58
PnL
+$2.4
Record
53%
2094-1845 (3939)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$2.13
Value
—
PnL
-$2.13
Record
36%
443-803 (1246)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$101
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
Chat
Market Info
Condition ID
0x5b4cf47e...be094d
Slug
nor2-kje-bja-2026-11-14-draw