Will Egersunds IK win on 2026-11-01?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 61¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.2K
-$450.6
66.1¢ → 60.5¢
-8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 68.9¢ | $2.2K | $1.6K | -$609.42 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $284.06 | $265.92 | -$15.37 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 11¢ | $47 | $222.18 | +$175.18 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 52¢ | $104 | $104 | -$1 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $1.08 | $1.08 | +$0 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$2,247.84
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$609.42
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$284.06
Value
$265.92
PnL
-$15.37
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$47
Value
$222.18
PnL
+$175.18
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$104
Value
$104
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.08
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.