Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 5.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 69¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$235.05
76.5¢ → 68.5¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fxwd12345 | Overavg 77¢ | $616 | $616 | +$0 | 69% 1526-701 (2227) |
 RN1 | Overavg 77¢ | $567.65 | $553.33 | -$14.32 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 23.2¢ | $376.9 | $438.5 | +$61.6 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 59.9¢ | $443.28 | $380.58 | -$62.71 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 59.9¢ | $247.74 | $293.54 | +$45.8 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 65.2¢ | $195.55 | $87.04 | -$108.51 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 49.2¢ | $516.38 | $236.14 | -$280.24 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $4.64 | $8 | +$3.36 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 86.3¢ | $12.95 | $7.5 | -$5.45 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
fxwd12345Invested
$616
Value
$616
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
1526-701 (2227)
RN1Invested
$567.65
Value
$553.33
PnL
-$14.32
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$376.9
Value
$438.5
PnL
+$61.6
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$443.28
Value
$380.58
PnL
-$62.71
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
Invested
$516.38
Value
$236.14
PnL
-$280.24
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$8
PnL
+$3.36
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$5.45
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.