Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 3.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$1.6K
-$879.57
50.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Overavg 46¢ | $993.68 | $993.68 | -$0 | 55% 1779-1467 (3246) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 54.2¢ | $618.49 | $312.24 | -$23.11 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 51.5¢ | $986.32 | $220.05 | -$766.26 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LA LaarsY<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $54.94 | $30.82 | -$24.12 | 51% 3435-3355 (6790) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 75.8¢ | $19.04 | $25.06 | +$6.03 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 53.4¢ | $43.58 | $8.16 | -$35.42 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $5.45 | $5.2 | -$0.3 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $5.42 | $4.42 | -$1 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 20.6¢ | $35.46 | $0.09 | -$35.37 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
Invested
$993.68
Value
$993.68
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
1779-1467 (3246)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$618.49
Value
$312.24
PnL
-$23.11
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$986.32
Value
$220.05
PnL
-$766.26
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$54.94
Value
$30.82
PnL
-$24.12
Record
51%
3435-3355 (6790)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.04
Value
$25.06
PnL
+$6.03
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$43.58
Value
$8.16
PnL
-$35.42
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$4.42
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$35.46
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$35.37
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.