Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 2.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 4.3¢ · $77 held · ended Nov 1

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$77.25

Combined PnL

-$16.34

Smart Money Entry

33.7¢ → 4.3¢

-87% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$41.55

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$0.71

Under3 traders

Total Value$35.7

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$15.63

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Overavg 97¢	$32.33	$31.67	-$0.67	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$27.06	$23.37	-$3.69	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$22.65	$10.79	-$11.87	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 66.9¢	$6.96	$9.88	-$0.04	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.55	-$0.08	52% 7504-6793 (14297)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$32.33

Value

$31.67

PnL

-$0.67

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.06

Value

$23.37

PnL

-$3.69

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.65

Value

$10.79

PnL

-$11.87

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$6.96

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7504-6793 (14297)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.6%

4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1701.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

1801.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.