Spread: Sarpsborg 08 FF (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kristiansund BK (50%) · Kristiansund BK at 96¢ · $341 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Kristiansund BK
6
Kristiansund BK 50%
$341.2
$37.17
61.9¢ → 96¢
+55% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKristiansund BK at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Kristiansund BKavg 57¢ | $224.13 | $244.79 | +$20.66 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Kristiansund BKavg 91¢ | $48.23 | $51.54 | +$3.31 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 27.2¢ | $15.87 | $18.69 | +$2.82 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 9¢ | $4.77 | $16.96 | +$12.19 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Sarpsborg 08 FFavg 45¢ | $8.18 | $5.82 | -$2.36 | 50% 19451-19817 (39268) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Kristiansund BKavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $3.4 | +$0.55 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
Invested
$224.13
Value
$244.79
PnL
+$20.66
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$48.23
Value
$51.54
PnL
+$3.31
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$15.87
Value
$18.69
PnL
+$2.82
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$16.96
PnL
+$12.19
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$8.18
Value
$5.82
PnL
-$2.36
Record
50%
19451-19817 (39268)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.55
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.