Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 82¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$4.5K
$967.82
64¢ → 82¢
+28% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44.5¢ | $1.4K | $2.1K | +$732.3 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.7K | +$252.71 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
FO foooool | Noavg 83.2¢ | $386.76 | $369.34 | -$17.42 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 77¢ | $144.02 | $146.83 | +$2.81 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $66.02 | $63.35 | -$2.67 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $26.14 | $40.72 | +$14.57 | 63% 1792-1071 (2863) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $26.51 | $26.61 | +$0.1 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $36.59 | $21.98 | -$14.61 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $5.28 | $4.23 | -$1.05 | 74% 1682-594 (2276) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $1.91 | $2.99 | +$1.08 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
Invested
$1,368.22
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$732.3
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$1,432.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$252.71
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$386.76
Value
$369.34
PnL
-$17.42
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$144.02
Value
$146.83
PnL
+$2.81
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$66.02
Value
$63.35
PnL
-$2.67
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$26.14
Value
$40.72
PnL
+$14.57
Record
63%
1792-1071 (2863)
Invested
$26.51
Value
$26.61
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$36.59
Value
$21.98
PnL
-$14.61
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$1.05
Record
74%
1682-594 (2276)
Invested
$1.91
Value
$2.99
PnL
+$1.08
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.