Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$748.05

Smart Money Entry

27.9¢ → 52.5¢

+88% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,413

Combined PnL+$602.97

No4 traders

Total Value$439.78

Total Shares952

Combined PnL+$145.08

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 27.7¢	$933.98	$1.5K	+$600.08	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 52.7¢	$808.98	$911.4	+$102.42	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.7¢	$482.22	$479.95	-$2.27
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$326.75	$431.44	+$104.69
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 30.9¢	$262.01	$413.07	+$151.05	63% 1792-1071 (2863)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 83.2¢	$566.95	$383.21	-$183.73	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83.2¢	$466.51	$266.46	-$200.05
└ No leg	Noavg 45.2¢	$100.44	$116.75	+$16.31
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 76.6¢	$267.56	$201.79	-$65.77	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.6¢	$166.96	$103.51	-$63.45
└ No leg	Noavg 53.7¢	$100.6	$98.28	-$2.32
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 71.2¢	$149.03	$155.96	+$6.93	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
└ No leg	Noavg 35.4¢	$74.28	$101.88	+$27.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.2¢	$74.75	$54.08	-$20.67
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$47.43	$58.47	+$11.04	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47¢	$36.02	$36.4	+$0.38
└ No leg	Noavg 27.1¢	$11.4	$22.06	+$10.66
poshposhARB<$100	Noavg 69¢	$59.51	$42.38	-$17.13	58% 10670-7658 (18328)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70¢	$27.06	$21.45	-$5.6
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$32.46	$20.93	-$11.52
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 55.6¢	$12.25	$15.14	+$2.89	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 19.6¢	$16.98	$12.55	-$4.43	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$11.26	$11.37	+$0.1	50% 19451-19817 (39268)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$4.45	$2.8	-$1.65	58% 18784-13847 (32631)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$933.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$600.08

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$808.98

Value

$911.4

PnL

+$102.42

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

Yes$482.2252.7¢-$2.27

No$326.7536¢+$104.69

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$262.01

Value

$413.07

PnL

+$151.05

Record

63%

1792-1071 (2863)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$566.95

Value

$383.21

PnL

-$183.73

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Yes$466.5183.2¢-$200.05

No$100.4445.2¢+$16.31

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$267.56

Value

$201.79

PnL

-$65.77

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Yes$166.9676.6¢-$63.45

No$100.653.7¢-$2.32

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$149.03

Value

$155.96

PnL

+$6.93

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

Both legs:

No$74.2835.4¢+$27.6

Yes$74.7571.2¢-$20.67

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.43

Value

$58.47

PnL

+$11.04

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Both legs:

Yes$36.0247¢+$0.38

No$11.427.1¢+$10.66

poshposhARB<$100

Invested

$59.51

Value

$42.38

PnL

-$17.13

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

Both legs:

Invested

$12.25

Value

$15.14

PnL

+$2.89

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$16.98

Value

$12.55

PnL

-$4.43

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$11.26

Value

$11.37

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

19451-19817 (39268)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$4.45

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$1.65

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.