Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
IK Start vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 39¢ · $123 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$123.43
-$1.11
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.9¢ | $29.13 | $34.94 | +$5.81 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 24.3¢ | $27.83 | $34.93 | +$7.1 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $31.35 | $26.13 | -$5.23 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $24.64 | $16 | -$8.64 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 23.1¢ | $10.5 | $10.67 | +$0.17 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.9¢ | $1.09 | $0.76 | -$0.33 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$29.13
Value
$34.94
PnL
+$5.81
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$27.83
Value
$34.93
PnL
+$7.1
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$31.35
Value
$26.13
PnL
-$5.23
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$24.64
Value
$16
PnL
-$8.64
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.67
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$0.33
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.