Spread: IK Start (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lillestrøm SK (40%) · Lillestrøm SK at 99¢ · $218 held · ended Nov 1

IK Start<1¢Lillestrøm SK>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lillestrøm SK

Consensus Traders

Lillestrøm SK 40%

Total Value

$217.75

Combined PnL

$19.4

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 99.5¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLillestrøm SK at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lillestrøm SK

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

IK Start1%

Lillestrøm SK99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lillestrøm SK2 traders

Total Value$184.11

Total Shares226

Combined PnL-$1.54

IK Start3 traders

Total Value$33.64

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$20.95

Lillestrøm SK — 40%IK Start — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Lillestrøm SKavg 81.5¢	$133.15	$133.17	+$0.02	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Lillestrøm SKavg 84¢	$52.5	$50.94	-$1.56	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	IK Startavg 5.7¢	$8.1	$26.27	+$18.17	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	IK Startavg 19¢	$3.8	$3.7	-$0.1	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
poshposhCTR<$100	IK Startavg 4¢	$0.79	$3.67	+$2.88	58% 10670-7658 (18328)

foooool

Lillestrøm SK

Invested

$133.15

Value

$133.17

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Lillestrøm SK

Invested

$52.5

Value

$50.94

PnL

-$1.56

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

IK Start

Invested

$8.1

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$18.17

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

IK Start

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

poshposhCTR<$100

IK Start

Invested

$0.79

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$2.88

Record

58%

10670-7658 (18328)

Research grade

NeutralLillestrøm SK at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lillestrøm SK

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lillestrøm SK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.