Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 28¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Yes73¢No27¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$484.57

Smart Money Entry

62.3¢ → 27.5¢

-56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,578

Combined PnL+$19.68

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,924

Combined PnL+$464.89

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
3E 3edmond.dantesCTR	Noavg 63¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$31.73	66% 25-13 (38)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$555.3	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.3¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$702.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.2¢	$209.23	$356.68	+$147.45
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 39¢	$665.72	$1.2K	+$487.1	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$1.1K	$631.96	-$471.84	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.6¢	$963.98	$485.14	-$478.84
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.2¢	$139.82	$146.82	+$7
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 37.1¢	$309.5	$581.63	-$12.62	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Yesavg 37¢	$407	$407	+$0	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Noavg 64¢	$348.51	$229.55	-$118.96	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$248.91	$130.32	-$118.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.7¢	$99.6	$99.23	-$0.36
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 38.8¢	$112.88	$193.51	-$9.58	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$35.5	$36.46	+$0.96	48% 8966-9599 (18565)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$42.26	$33.59	-$8.68	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$8.05	$8.05	+$0	50% 697-693 (1390)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 52.5¢	$10.91	$6.85	-$4.06	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.05	$4.82	-$0.23	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.4	-$0.05	58% 18784-13847 (32631)

3edmond.dantesCTR

Invested

$3,997.22

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$31.73

Record

66%

25-13 (38)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,233.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$555.3

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

No$2,024.2148.3¢-$702.75

Yes$209.2340.2¢+$147.45

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$665.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$487.1

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,103.8

Value

$631.96

PnL

-$471.84

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

Both legs:

No$963.9860.6¢-$478.84

Yes$139.8266.2¢+$7

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$309.5

Value

$581.63

PnL

-$12.62

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Yes

Invested

$407

Value

$407

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

fooooolARB<$100

Invested

$348.51

Value

$229.55

PnL

-$118.96

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Both legs:

Invested

$112.88

Value

$193.51

PnL

-$9.58

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$35.5

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$0.96

Record

48%

8966-9599 (18565)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$42.26

Value

$33.59

PnL

-$8.68

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$10.91

Value

$6.85

PnL

-$4.06

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.23

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

18784-13847 (32631)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.