Will IK Start win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 64¢ · $57K held · ended Nov 1

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.3K

Combined PnL

-$33.17

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 64¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares42,159

Combined PnL-$304.08

Yes8 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares47,243

Combined PnL+$270.91

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$12.5K	$13.1K	+$619.63	59% 46920-33177 (80097)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$9.2K	$9.5K	+$206.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.4¢	$3.2K	$3.6K	+$413.47
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 62.5¢	$12.5K	$12.4K	-$197.35	50% 2544-2531 (5075)
3E 3edmond.dantesCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$9.7K	$9.7K	+$129.35	66% 25-13 (38)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$75.03	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 68¢	$5.7K	$5.2K	-$41.88	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
us391	Noavg 62¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$0	51% 1712-1675 (3387)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 62¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$23.75	51% 1529-1481 (3010)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$68.09	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 62.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$17	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63¢	$1.5K	$559.33	-$24.11	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$156.94	$158.07	-$1.18	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.5¢	$122.58	$119.66	-$7.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$34.36	$38.41	+$6.57
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$50	$50	+$0	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$20.15	$18.68	-$1.47	54% 57170-49418 (106588)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$6.57	$6.46	-$0.11	53% 5642-5057 (10699)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$4.55	$4.55	+$0	50% 697-693 (1390)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$0.33	$0.41	+$0.04	62% 1191-725 (1916)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$12,452.25

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$619.63

Record

59%

46920-33177 (80097)

Both legs:

No$9,223.2862.1¢+$206.16

Yes$3,228.9732.4¢+$413.47

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$12,492.02

Value

$12.4K

PnL

-$197.35

Record

50%

2544-2531 (5075)

3edmond.dantesCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,675.34

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$129.35

Record

66%

25-13 (38)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,700

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$75.03

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$5,694.99

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$41.88

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

us391

Invested

$3,249.17

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1712-1675 (3387)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$2,822

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$23.75

Record

51%

1529-1481 (3010)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,426.83

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$68.09

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$1,939

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$17

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,519.22

Value

$559.33

PnL

-$24.11

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$156.94

Value

$158.07

PnL

-$1.18

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Both legs:

Invested

$50

Value

$50

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.15

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$1.47

Record

54%

57170-49418 (106588)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.57

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

5642-5057 (10699)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.04

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.