Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will IK Start vs. Lillestrøm SK end in a draw?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 22¢ · $24 held · ended Nov 1

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$24.41

Combined PnL

$0.03

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$20.25

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.16

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$0.2

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 74¢	$20.03	$20.25	+$0.23	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.65	$1.65	+$0	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.41	$1.41	-$0	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.1	-$0.2	58% 18786-13851 (32637)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$20.03

Value

$20.25

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.