IK Start vs. Lillestrøm SK: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 51¢ · $944 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$943.52
-$14.58
61.9¢ → 51¢
-18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 38.6¢ | $388.19 | $492.4 | +$104.21 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 61.9¢ | $568.44 | $449.65 | -$118.79 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $1.47 | $1.47 | +$0 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.