Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fredrikstad FK vs. Rosenborg BK: O/U 1.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 26¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$151.42
21.6¢ → 26¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 21.3¢ | $459.17 | $560.42 | +$101.26 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 22.1¢ | $250.88 | $295.61 | +$44.73 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $224.7 | $274.91 | +$50.21 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 19¢ | $150.44 | $205.58 | +$55.13 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 79.3¢ | $74.26 | $69.34 | -$4.92 | |
SA Saber-greed | Overavg 70¢ | $103.53 | $109.45 | +$5.92 | 59% 2556-1783 (4339) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $6.42 | $5.95 | -$0.47 | 49% 7982-8322 (16304) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $0.22 | $0.27 | -$0.01 | 39% 419-667 (1086) |
RN1CTRInvested
$459.17
Value
$560.42
PnL
+$101.26
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$250.88
Value
$295.61
PnL
+$44.73
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$224.7
Value
$274.91
PnL
+$50.21
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.53
Value
$109.45
PnL
+$5.92
Record
59%
2556-1783 (4339)
Invested
$6.42
Value
$5.95
PnL
-$0.47
Record
49%
7982-8322 (16304)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$0.01
Record
39%
419-667 (1086)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.