Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Fredrikstad FK (38%) · Fredrikstad FK at 68¢ · $50K held · ended Oct 31

Rosenborg BK32¢Fredrikstad FK68¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fredrikstad FK

Consensus Traders

Fredrikstad FK 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.6K

Combined PnL

-$222.74

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 68¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFredrikstad FK at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fredrikstad FK

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rosenborg BK32%

Fredrikstad FK68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fredrikstad FK5 traders

Total Value$34.5K

Total Shares50,667

Combined PnL-$60.69

Rosenborg BK8 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares23,708

Combined PnL-$162.05

Fredrikstad FK — 38%Rosenborg BK — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Fredrikstad FK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFredrikstad FK 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperFredrikstad FK 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFredrikstad FK 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Fredrikstad FK 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QSQL	Fredrikstad FKavg 67¢	$20.8K	$21.1K	+$300.37	— 9-5 (14)
FA fakeky	Fredrikstad FKavg 69.5¢	$9.2K	$9.0K	-$200.51	77% 43-13 (56)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Fredrikstad FKavg 69¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$113.34	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Fredrikstad FK leg	Fredrikstad FKavg 69¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$66.57
└ Rosenborg BK leg	Rosenborg BKavg 29.9¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$179.9
RN1CTR	Rosenborg BKavg 30¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$146.19	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Rosenborg BKavg 31.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$32.12	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
AD adururu	Fredrikstad FKavg 70.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$81.76	53% 387-339 (726)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Fredrikstad FKavg 70.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$80.17	53% 426-381 (807)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Rosenborg BKavg 31.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$28.6	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
AR ARocky33CTR	Rosenborg BKavg 40¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$299.96	76% 4051-1277 (5328)
RO Rocky31CTR	Rosenborg BKavg 40¢	$342.14	$273.71	-$68.43	74% 1592-569 (2161)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Rosenborg BKavg 29.8¢	$187.49	$202.71	+$15.22	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
└ Rosenborg BK leg	Rosenborg BKavg 29.8¢	$119	$128	+$9
└ Fredrikstad FK leg	Fredrikstad FKavg 62.3¢	$68.49	$74.71	+$6.22
HRTradingCTR	Rosenborg BKavg 35¢	$134.54	$123.01	-$11.53	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
poshposhCTR<$100	Rosenborg BKavg 25¢	$37.5	$48	+$10.5	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Rosenborg BKavg 31.5¢	$27.29	$27.73	+$0.45	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
US User7429<$100	Fredrikstad FKavg 58¢	$8.06	$9.45	+$1.39	55% 8305-6697 (15002)

QSQL

Fredrikstad FK

Invested

$20,766.34

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$300.37

Record

—

9-5 (14)

fakeky

Fredrikstad FK

Invested

$9,206.35

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$200.51

Record

77%

43-13 (56)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Fredrikstad FK

Invested

$7,273.84

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$113.34

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Fredrikstad FK$4,665.7469¢-$66.57

Rosenborg BK$2,608.129.9¢+$179.9

RN1CTR

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$2,211.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$146.19

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

UpTheBluesCTR

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$2,258.78

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$32.12

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

adururu

Fredrikstad FK

Invested

$2,287.72

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$81.76

Record

53%

387-339 (726)

oxe78sh4w98

Fredrikstad FK

Invested

$2,245.46

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$80.17

Record

53%

426-381 (807)

LuckyLooCTR

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$1,236.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$28.6

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

ARocky33CTR

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$1,499.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$299.96

Record

76%

4051-1277 (5328)

Rocky31CTR

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$342.14

Value

$273.71

PnL

-$68.43

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$187.49

Value

$202.71

PnL

+$15.22

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

Both legs:

Rosenborg BK$11929.8¢+$9

Fredrikstad FK$68.4962.3¢+$6.22

HRTradingCTR

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$134.54

Value

$123.01

PnL

-$11.53

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

poshposhCTR<$100

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$37.5

Value

$48

PnL

+$10.5

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

fooooolCTR<$100

Rosenborg BK

Invested

$27.29

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

User7429<$100

Fredrikstad FK

Invested

$8.06

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$1.39

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

Research grade

NeutralFredrikstad FK at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Fredrikstad FK

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Fredrikstad FK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFredrikstad FK 100% · 2

Aligned

sniperFredrikstad FK 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFredrikstad FK 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Fredrikstad FK 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fredrikstad FK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.