Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (73%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 27¢ · $760 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 40%
$759.64
$117.23
46.8¢ → 27¢
-42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $474.61 | $581.59 | +$116.38 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $47.84 | $52.1 | +$4.26 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $38.19 | $51.48 | +$13.29 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $40.03 | $39.05 | -$0.99 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $31.49 | $18.43 | -$13.06 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $4.43 | $5.33 | +$0.9 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.9¢ | $8.57 | $5.19 | -$3.39 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.45 | -$0.2 | 48% 2393-2622 (5015) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.28 | +$0.02 | 54% 6279-5320 (11599) |
KK kkpay19888<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $1.75 | $1.76 | +$0.02 | 51% 531-514 (1045) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$474.61
Value
$581.59
PnL
+$116.38
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$47.84
Value
$52.1
PnL
+$4.26
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
Invested
$38.19
Value
$51.48
PnL
+$13.29
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$40.03
Value
$39.05
PnL
-$0.99
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$31.49
Value
$18.43
PnL
-$13.06
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.43
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.9
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.57
Value
$5.19
PnL
-$3.39
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.2
Record
48%
2393-2622 (5015)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
6279-5320 (11599)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.76
PnL
+$0.02
Record
51%
531-514 (1045)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.